Skip to main content
Spot trading is the simplest way to take a position on a prediction market. You buy shares that represent a probability — each share is worth between 0and0 and 1, settling to exactly 1ifyouroutcomeiscorrect,or1 if your outcome is correct, or 0 if it isn’t.

​
How spot trading works

Every market on Theta Labs has two sides: YES and NO. The price of a share reflects the crowd’s implied probability of that outcome occurring.
  • A YES share priced at 40¢ implies a 40% probability the event happens
  • A NO share priced at 60¢ implies a 60% probability the event does not happen
  • YES price + NO price always equal $1.00
When a market resolves, every winning share pays out 1.00∗∗andeverylosingsharepaysout∗∗1.00** and every losing share pays out **0.00.
Theta Labs aggregates markets from two platforms. Polymarket markets settle in USDC.e on Polygon. Kalshi markets settle in USDC on Solana. Your wallet holds funds for both automatically.

​
Finding a market

Use the search bar at the top of the Trade page to search by keyword, topic, or person. You can also browse by category — politics, sports, crypto, science, and more. Markets from Polymarket display a blue Poly badge. Markets from Kalshi display a purple Kalshi badge.

​
Buying shares

​
YES vs NO

  • Buy YES if you think the event is more likely than the current price suggests
  • Buy NO if you think the event is less likely than the current price suggests
Both YES and NO shares work identically — you’re always betting that your chosen outcome happens.

​
Example

YES is trading at 40¢. You buy 100 YES shares for $40.
  • If YES resolves: your 100 shares pay 1.00each→∗∗+1.00 each → **+60 profit** (100payout−100 payout − 40 cost)
  • If NO resolves: your shares are worth 0→∗∗−0 → **−40 loss** (your full cost)

​
Placing a trade

1

Select a market

Search or browse to find the market you want to trade. Click it to open the market detail page.
2

Choose YES or NO

Select the outcome you want to buy. The current price shows the implied probability.
3

Enter your amount

Type the dollar amount you want to spend, or enter the number of shares directly. The order panel will show your estimated shares and cost.
4

Review and confirm

Check the price, share count, and potential payout. Click Buy to submit the order.
5

Order executes

Your order fills at the best available price. Your position appears in your portfolio.

​
Selling shares

You can sell your shares at any time before a market resolves — you don’t have to wait for settlement. Selling lets you:
  • Lock in a profit if the price has moved in your favor
  • Cut a loss if you change your view
  • Free up capital to redeploy elsewhere
To sell, open the market from your portfolio or the trade page, select Sell, enter the number of shares you want to close, and confirm. You receive the current market price for each share sold.
The NO side of a market is often mispriced when sentiment is skewed heavily toward YES. Trading NO can offer better value in markets with very high or very low implied probabilities.

​
Settlement

When a market resolves, the outcome is determined by the rules defined by Polymarket or Kalshi. Once resolved:
  • Winning shares (e.g., YES shares on a YES outcome) automatically pay out $1.00 each
  • Losing shares expire worthless at $0.00
  • Proceeds are credited to your wallet automatically — no action needed
Settlement timing varies by market. Some markets resolve within hours of the event; others take days while the result is confirmed.
You do not need to manually claim winnings. Settlement is handled automatically and funds appear in your wallet balance once processed.